April 2025 — U.S. consumers and companies are facing mounting pressure as a new wave of tariffs triggers widespread economic shifts. Insights from Apollo Global Management reveal a growing strain on spending, corporate earnings, supply chains, and consumer confidence.

Firms: Bracing for Impact

American businesses are reacting swiftly to the tariffs, leading to:

• Sharp earnings declines: The steepest drop in earnings outlook since 2020.

• Falling new orders and capital expenditures: Companies are scaling back investment plans and purchases.

• Inventory surges: Firms rushed to stock up before tariffs kicked in, but are now facing excess stock.

• Declining CEO confidence: Business leaders are growing more cautious amid economic uncertainty.

• Logistics slowdown: Shipping from China to the U.S. has nearly ground to a halt, with container freight rates falling sharply.

Consumers: Growing Anxiety

Consumers are also tightening their belts:

• Record-low consumer confidence: Shoppers are increasingly worried about the economy, particularly about job losses.

• Front-loading purchases: Many rushed to buy goods before tariff-related price hikes.

• Rising financial stress: Credit card delinquencies are up, and more people are only making minimum payments.

• Tourism hit: Both international visitors to the U.S. and domestic travel hotspots like Las Vegas are seeing major declines.

The Bigger Picture: A Trade-Triggered Recession

Apollo’s analysis suggests that the U.S. may be heading into a stagflationary recession — a rare mix of slow growth, rising prices, and stubborn unemployment. As tariffs disrupt supply chains and drive up costs, both firms and consumers are pulling back, setting the stage for a rough summer.

Final Thoughts

Trade tensions are no longer an abstract policy debate; they are a growing reality for businesses, workers, and households alike. The coming months will test the resilience of the U.S. economy as it navigates this new era of uncertainty.