Why Preparation Matters Now
The mandatory six-year review process written into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) formally begins on July 1, 2026. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are already engaged in pre-review negotiations and bilateral discussions, creating uncertainty for companies that depend on North American trade. The goal for shippers should not be to predict the final outcome. It should be to understand current exposure and prepare for several possible changes.
Recent conditions reinforce the need for a closer look. Mexican truck exports to the United States fell 5.9% year over year in March, while businesses in Mexico faced added cost pressure from tariffs, currency effects, and energy inflation. These developments can affect sourcing, production decisions, transportation planning, and customer pricing.
Build a Product-Level Rules-of-Origin Record
Start by documenting how each major product currently qualifies for preferential USMCA treatment. Record the applicable rule of origin, tariff classification, regional value content calculation, and supporting supplier information. Avoid relying on broad assumptions at the company level: qualification can differ significantly by product, component, or production location.
Next, identify products and parts that sit close to a required threshold. Small changes in sourcing, exchange rates, input prices, or classification could affect eligibility. Flag these items for a more detailed review and confirm that supplier declarations and production records are complete.
Model Costs and Organize Documentation
Run landed-cost scenarios in case preferential treatment changes, becomes more difficult to document, or is subject to revised requirements. Compare current duty treatment with potential alternative rates, then include transportation, brokerage, inventory, currency, and energy costs. This analysis can help teams prioritize the products and trade lanes that need contingency planning.
Finally, get certificates of origin and related records in order. Confirm who is responsible for issuing, reviewing, and retaining them, and resolve gaps before the review begins. A focused two-week effort can give shippers a clearer baseline, stronger documentation, and more flexibility—without requiring a prediction about the review’s final result.
